By Nimo Omer

It has been three weeks since a devastating 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey and north-west Syria. The total death toll now exceeds 46,000 – over 40,000 of whom are in Turkey. A number of cities and towns have been destroyed and at least two million people have lost their homes, prompting the government to set up a makeshift network of tent camps and temporary container homes. On Saturday, Turkey announced that it had ended rescue efforts in all but two of the hardest hit provinces, in the cities of Antakya and Kahramanmaraş.

As time has gone on, shock around the disaster has turned into anger and frustration, with Turkish citizens accusing the government of evading accountability over poor building standards. The delayed and disorganised emergency response has not helped the situation, putting president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in an increasingly precarious position as the country heads towards its next general election. I spoke to Dr Karabekir Akkoyunlu, a UK-based expert in Turkish politics and lecturer at SOAS University of London, about the impact the earthquake has had on Erdoğan’s chances for another term in office. That’s right after the headlines.

What was Erdoğan’s position before the earthquake?

Over the last two years, Erdoğan has not been doing well politically. “Even though he has control over the judiciary, the media and the executive, the opposition has managed to form coalitions that work fairly effectively in key moments that have damaged him politically,” Dr Karabekir Akkoyunlu says. “For instance, in the 2019 local elections, they managed to get the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara out of the hands of the ruling party after 24 years, which was a huge setback for them.”

Erdoğan’s falling popularity has, in large part, been because of Turkey’s weakening economy: the lira has been collapsing in value for years, recently hitting record lows against the dollar. And while inflation has fallen over the last two months, the average person in Turkey is unlikely to feel immediate relief as the country has consistently had some of the highest inflation rates in Europe – in October it reached a 24-year high of 85.5%.

To combat his poor polling, Erdoğan started announcing “last ditch populist measures,” Akkoyunlu says, that he might not be able to deliver. In October he unveiled what he called “the biggest social housing project in the history of the Turkish republic”, promising to build 500,000 new homes. “He started pulling these policies out of the bag even though they would obviously have huge costs for Turkey’s already empty state coffers,” says Akkoyunlu.

What do the public think now?

As buildings that should have been able to withstand the earthquake collapsed, the government has faced scathing criticism about the lack of oversight of construction firms that were allowed to skirt safety regulations in favour of speed and cost. “None of these were hidden things, they were flagged by civil society groups, activists and coalition politicians in the past, but they were oftentimes ignored, or, in certain cases, put in prison because of their activism,” says Akkoyunlu. Now, with a number of Turkish towns and cities reduced to rubble, the focus has moved back to what many are calling systemic corruption.

While public opinion will change as the country starts to rebuild, and Erdoğan likely takes all the credit for getting Turkey back on its feet, the government will not be able to shake this crisis off, like it often has been able to in the past. “From this vantage point of less than two weeks since the disaster, I think the government will not escape unscathed in terms of public opinion. I believe it’s going to lead to a landslide loss in public support,” says Akkoyunlu.

The elections

Erdoğan has made it clear that he has no desire to relinquish control and will do everything that he can to stay in power, and that might not always be within the framework of the democratic process. Currently, the official plans are that the elections will go ahead in May, or at the latest June, and if that happens Erdogan’s prospects do not look good. This is perhaps why he has been pushing ahead with unconstitutional moves to delay the election, saying that Turkey cannot hold an election in these conditions. “But there’s roughly five months until June and elections have been organised regularly in this country in very adverse conditions, so this is a clear attempt to evade accountability,” Akkoyunlu says.

As the centenary of the Turkish republic approaches, this coming election is a critical juncture for the country. Five more years of Erdoğan’s government would mean a further slide towards authoritarianism and cronyism. “This election will determine whether there is a last exit before the bridge for saving Turkish democracy.”

Akkoyunlu also notes that it is important to place Turkey within the global economic system. “Many international organisations have praised the drive of the Turkish economy towards growth and the construction sector has been at the centre of Turkey’s economic boom.” Akkoyunlu adds, “Turkey’s a particular case of what happens when neoliberalism and democratic erosion come together.”

The opposition – a six-party coalition – has it’s own uphill battle to climb, and is yet to announce who will be their presidential candidate. If they win, public institutions could easily still be filled with Erdoğan loyalists, which would make it difficult for them to govern. Or they might inherit hollowed out government departments that are simply not functional. Akkoyunlu says, however, that this is less “about things becoming perfect and more about taking one step to stop the worst from happening.”

Erdoğan’s government came in two decades ago promising to clean up Turkey, after a series of corruption scandals, economic crises, and a devastating earthquake. “I think it’s a very tragic picture,” Akkoyunlu adds. “It seems Turkey has come full circle, and in some ways, in terms of democracy, it has backtracked.”

Courtesy: The Guardian

The entire earth is a mosque for Muslims, but the physical masjid has also played an important spiritual and educational role for Muslims throughout Islamic history. The architectural evolution of mosques is a fascinating journey through time, tracing the development of Islamic art and architecture from the humble beginnings of mud-brick structures to the grandeur and splendor of modern mosques all around the globe.

By Nicodemus Minde

A series of political manoeuvres by Tanzania President Samia Suluhu Hassan have set the east African country on an unfamiliar, yet hopeful, political path. Since her elevation to the presidency two years ago following the death of John Pombe Magufuli, the new president has struck a reformist political tone and led reconciliation with a previously marginalised opposition. None of this would have been possible under Magufuli. Magufuli not only stifled the opposition, but also went as far as threatening to annihilate it. Hassan has made several reforms, including reconciliation talks between the government and the opposition. Her government also lifted the ban on newspapers.

Hassan has made a significant break from her predecessor. There was little civic and political space under the late president. There was violent crackdown on the opposition and the media. Hassan has placed strong emphasis on reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuilding. She has reversed most of her predecessor’s retrogressive policies. For example, she has ended the ban on pregnant schoolgirls in classrooms. She has also opened up the country to foreign investments.

Her most recent initiative was to lift the ban on political rallies and activities. Magufuli banned opposition political rallies and activities in 2016. The unconstitutional move came at a time when the main opposition party – Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) – was planning nationwide rallies to protest Magufuli’s repressive and authoritarian rule.

A year ago, Hassan met exiled opposition figure Tundu Lissu in Brussels, and he has returned home. She went on to play a role in the release of Chadema chairman Freeman Mbowe, who had been in prison for 18 months facing terrorism charges.

Alongside the reforms, Hassan used her first full year in office to consolidate her political base. She seems to be carefully strategising her reforms with the 2025 elections in mind. All her actions to remake Tanzania’s political landscape need to be seen in the light of those elections. She will go into the election as a clear favourite. But the reforms are a double-edged sword for the president. They have endeared her to many, but also breathed new life into the opposition.

Hassan’s power game

Hassan moved quickly to consolidate her base after the death of Magufuli in 2021. On the anniversary of her ascent to the top office, she spoke about the difficulties she had endured during the transition. She observed that her “rivals” had already begun plotting for the 2025 elections.

To strengthen her base, she brought back into the fold people who had been sidelined by Magufuli. One was former president Jakaya Kikwete. She also made several changes in her cabinet and the governing structures.

Another part of her 2025 game plan has been the overtures she’s made to the opposition. Having served as Magufuli’s vice-president, she understands the intricate political games needed to win an election.

Reform agenda

In December 2021, Hassan set up a taskforce on political reform and democracy. It met with political stakeholders and drew up a set of key policy proposals:

• political parties should be allowed to conduct public rallies and hold internal meetings
• an independent electoral body, free from interference from the executive
• presidential election results should be subject to challenges in court, as the African Court on Human and People’s Rights ruled in July 2020
• the Political Parties Act should be reformed to allow more political participation for women and special groups, such as persons with disabilities.

Divisions over the constitution

The next hurdle for Hassan is addressing discontent over constitutional reform and policy priorities. Her recent taskforce recommended completing the stalled constitution review process initiated eight years ago. After the 2014 review, a proposed constitution was passed, awaiting referendum.

Opposition politicians are opposed to the content of the proposed constitution. They are pushing for an earlier draft constitution spearheaded by constitutional reformist judge Joseph Warioba, terming it the people’s constitution.

The ACT-Wazalendo party is also pushing for the creation of an independent electoral commission before a new constitution. Chadema continues to push for a new constitution as the panacea for Tanzania’s development.

Hassan has demonstrated political skill and tact well beyond her two years’ experience as the country’s leader. Her stand on a new constitution remains tepid. She previously stated that her priority was the economy and the constitution would come later. But it would not be surprising to see her meet the opposition halfway on their demands for a new constitution.

Nicodemus Minde, is an Adjunct Lecturer, United States International University – Africa, United States International University

Courtesy: The Conversation