By Shafiq Khattak
The announcement of a $700 million credit facility by the China Development Bank (CDB) for Pakistan has reignited the debate on the implications of the “China debt trap” for Pakistan’s struggling economy. Although the credit facility is expected to bolster Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves and stabilize its currency, experts have raised concerns about the long-term consequences of relying on foreign borrowing to manage the country’s economic affairs.
The notion of the “debt trap” has been extensively discussed in relation to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves providing loans for infrastructure projects in developing countries. The Sri Lanka Hambantota Port episode has often been cited as a cautionary tale of the potential hazards of the “China debt trap” for emerging economies. This case pertains to the construction of a port in Sri Lanka by China, which left Sri Lanka unable to repay the loans provided by China, resulting in China taking control of the port for a 99-year lease. This incident is seen as an example of the “China debt trap” strategy, in which China extends loans to developing countries with high interest rates that they cannot repay, resulting in China acquiring strategic assets in these nations.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge that not all of China’s infrastructure initiatives in emerging economies adhere to the same blueprint. There exist numerous instances of fruitful collaborations between China and developing nations, which have yielded sustainable economic progress and growth for both parties. These partnerships have yielded considerable improvements in infrastructure, commerce, and investment, thereby contributing to the economic advancement and development of these countries. Furthermore, China and Pakistan enjoy a long-standing friendship and strategic partnership that is founded on shared interests in regional stability, economic progress, and security. China has extended substantial economic and military aid to Pakistan, including the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a significant infrastructure project intended to link China’s western regions to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan.
Moreover, it is crucial to acknowledge that the “China debt trap” is not a foregone conclusion for every developing country that receives loans from China. Rather, the outcome depends on several factors, including the terms of the loan agreement, the economic policies of the recipient country, and the governance framework that governs the project. Countries that negotiate favorable loan terms, implement sound economic policies, and maintain a robust governance structure are more likely to benefit from Chinese loans and avoid the debt trap.
Nonetheless, it is essential to recognize that the “China debt trap” cannot be analyzed in isolation, as it is embedded within a complex geopolitical landscape. In particular, the Indo-Pacific region has recently witnessed heightened competition between China and the United States, which has consequently led to increased scrutiny of China’s investments in developing countries. Within this competitive environment, the United States has taken a critical stance toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and accused China of utilizing debt to achieve strategic leverage in developing countries. Additionally, the United States has introduced its own economic and security initiatives in the region, including the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative.
Therefore, to fully comprehend the “China debt trap” narrative, it is crucial to situate it within this broader geopolitical context. While it is imperative to examine China’s lending practices and their implications for developing countries, it is equally necessary to consider the larger political and strategic landscape in which this narrative has materialized. The “China debt trap” narrative is fundamentally intertwined with the competition between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. As such, it is essential to approach the issue with nuance and evaluate each project on its own merits and in the context of the specific circumstances of the recipient country.
It is imperative to approach the issue of debt management with careful consideration and evaluate each project on its own merits, taking into account the specific circumstances of the recipient country. In the case of Pakistan, a comprehensive and sustainable approach is required to manage its relationship with China and address its debt challenges. This approach should prioritize transparency and accountability to ensure that projects benefit all segments of society.
Furthermore, Pakistan must explore alternative options for attracting foreign investment and diversifying funding sources to avoid an over-reliance on borrowing. By drawing on the experiences of other nations and prioritizing long-term economic strategies and investments in critical sectors, Pakistan can achieve economic stability and ensure that progress benefits all.
Therefore, the “China debt trap” narrative cannot be analyzed in isolation but should be viewed within the broader geopolitical context. By taking into consideration the larger political and strategic landscape, Pakistan can pursue sustainable economic development while mitigating the potential risks associated with excessive reliance on foreign borrowing.
