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EDITORIAL

Currency Depreciations Risk Intensifying Food, Energy Crisis in Developing Economies

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The shrinking value of the currencies of most developing economies is driving up food and fuel prices in ways that could deepen the food and energy crises that many of them already face, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.

In U.S. dollar terms, the prices of most commodities have declined from their recent peaks amid concerns of an impending global recession, the report documents. From the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 through the end of last month, the price of Brent crude oil in U.S. dollars fell nearly 6 percent. Yet, because of currency depreciations, almost 60 percent of oil-importing emerging-market and developing economies saw an increase in domestic-currency oil prices during this period. Nearly 90 percent of these economies also saw a larger increase in wheat prices in local-currency terms compared to the rise in U.S. dollars.

Elevated prices of energy commodities that serve as inputs to agricultural production have been driving up food prices. During the first three quarters of 2022, food-price inflation in South Asia averaged more than 20 percent. Food price inflation in other regions, including Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, averaged between 12 and 15 percent. East Asia and the Pacific has been the only region with low food-price inflation, partly because of broadly stable prices of rice, the region’s key staple.

“Although many commodity prices have retreated from their peaks, they are still high compared to their average level over the past five years,” said Pablo Saavedra, the World Bank’s Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions. “A further spike in world food prices could prolong the challenges of food insecurity across developing countries. An array of policies is needed to foster supply, facilitate distribution, and support real incomes.”

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, energy prices have been quite volatile but are now expected to decline. After surging by about 60 percent in 2022, energy prices are projected to decline 11 percent in 2023. Despite this moderation, energy prices next year will still be 75 percent above their average over the past five years.

The price of Brent crude oil is expected to average $92 a barrel in 2023—well above the five-year average of $60 a barrel. Both natural gas and coal prices are projected to ease in 2023 from record highs in 2022. However, by 2024, Australian coal and U.S. natural-gas prices are still expected to be double their average over the past five years, while European natural gas prices could be nearly four times higher. Coal production is projected to significantly increase as several major exporters boost output, putting climate-change goals at risk.

“The combination of elevated commodity prices and persistent currency depreciations translates into higher inflation in many countries,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group and EFI Chief Economist,which produces the Outlook report. “Policymakers in emerging market and developing economies have limited room to manage the most pronounced global inflation cycle in decades. They need to carefully calibrate monetary and fiscal policies, clearly communicate their plans, and get ready for a period of even higher volatility in global financial and commodity markets.”

Agricultural prices are expected to decline 5 percent next year. Wheat prices in the third quarter of 2022 fell nearly 20 percent but remain 24 percent higher than a year ago. The decline in agricultural prices in 2023 reflects a better-than-projected global wheat crop, stable supplies in the rice market, and the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine. Metal prices are projected to decline 15 percent in 2023, largely because of weaker global growth and concerns about a slowdown in China.

The outlook for commodity prices is subject to many risks. Energy markets face significant supply concerns as worries about the availability of energy during the upcoming winter will intensify in Europe. Higher-than-expected energy prices could feed through to non-energy prices, especially food, prolonging challenges associated with food insecurity. A sharper slowdown in global growth also presents a key risk, especially for crude oil and metals prices.

The forecast of a decline in agricultural prices is subject to an array of risks,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “First, export disruptions by Ukraine or Russia could again interrupt global grain supplies. Second, additional increases in energy prices could exert upward pressure on grain and edible oil prices. Third, adverse weather patterns can reduce yields; 2023 is likely to be the third La Niña year in a row, potentially reducing yields of key crops in South America and Southern Africa.”

Special Focus: Decline in Copper and Aluminum Prices and the Impact on Developing Economies

Concerns about a possible global recession next year have already contributed to a sharp decline in copper and aluminum prices. A Special Focus section of the report examines the drivers of aluminum and copper prices and explores implications for emerging market and developing economies that export these commodities. Prices will likely remain volatile as the energy transition unfolds and demand shifts from fossil fuels to renewables, which will benefit some metal producers. Metal exporters can make the most of the resulting opportunities for growth over the medium term while limiting the impact of price volatility by ensuring they have well-designed fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, the report highlights.


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EDITORIAL

Who Stands for the Palestinians?

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Since Israel’s airstrike in Rafah on the night of 26th May 2024, the evidence of an egregious civilian toll has mounted. At least 45 people are now believed to have been killed – and while Israel claimed that the attack was aimed at a “Hamas compound”, witnesses, aid organizations and video evidence all suggest that a refugee encampment bore the brunt of the attack.

On Monday morning, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) said that the attack was against “legitimate targets”. Now, in the face of a chorus of international condemnation and with an emergency session of the UN Security Council scheduled for Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted that “something unfortunately went tragically wrong” despite what he claimed were “our best efforts not to hurt them”. But he also insisted that there would be no change in policy. “I will keep fighting until the flag of victory is raised,” he said. “I don’t intend to end the war before every goal has been achieved.”

The question now is whether the expressions of dismay from even Israel’s closest allies, including the US, will translate into meaningful pressure on Netanyahu to change course.

Even though, not much is expected from the US, the ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza, have cast a harsh light on the international response, particularly that of the Arab governments. Their reaction, or lack thereof, reveals a stark and disturbing hypocrisy when contrasted with their military engagements in other regional conflicts.

A Record of Intervention

The historical record of Arab military intervention in the region is extensive. During the Gulf War, known as Desert Storm, Arab nations rallied under American leadership to ‘liberate’ Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. Egypt participated with 20,000 soldiers, Syria with 14,000, Morocco with 13,000, Kuwait with 9,000, Oman with 6,300, the UAE with 4,300, and Qatar with 2,600 soldiers. This coalition demonstrated a robust and coordinated military effort driven by international and regional political imperatives.

Similarly, during NATO’s intervention in Libya, dubbed Odyssey Dawn, Qatar and the UAE committed significant military resources, including warplanes and elite forces, to the campaign. They not only fought on the ground but also financed the operation, with the Gulf States reportedly covering the cost of every missile and bomb dropped on Libya -a price tag of a million dollars per strike. This resulted in the destruction of Libya, widespread displacement of its people, and plundering of its wealth.

In *Decisive Storm* against Yemen, under American-British direction, Saudi Arabia led with 100 fighter planes and 150,000 soldiers, supported by the UAE with 30 planes, Kuwait with 15, Bahrain with 15, Qatar with 10, Jordan with 6, Morocco with 6, and Sudan with 5 planes, backed by thousands of troops. Egypt also played a role, participating in the operations and showcasing its military readiness.

Moreover, in the conflict against Syria, Arab states, again under American influence, formed operations rooms in Jordan and Turkey to facilitate the entry, arming, and financing of 60,000 fighters, supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and Bahrain. This intervention further destabilized Syria, contributing to a prolonged and devastating civil war.

 A Deafening Silence on Gaza

In stark contrast to these interventions, the Arab governments’ response to the Israeli attacks on Gaza has been notably passive. The same countries that were willing to mobilize vast military resources to engage in conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Syria, now stand by and watch as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) massacre and inflict massive casualties and destruction on the Palestinian population.

When Gaza is under siege, and civilians are massacred, these governments, bound by geopolitical alliances and dependencies, particularly on the United States, find themselves paralyzed. They are unable even to open a crossing to provide essential food and medicine, awaiting a ‘green light’ from their Western allies. This inaction exposes a shameful double standard and a betrayal of the Palestinian cause.

The Media’s Complicity

The role of the media in this dynamic hypocrisy cannot be ignored. A media apparatus that is often fully funded and controlled by these very governments perpetuates a narrative that justifies these wars. They frame interventions in Iraq as ‘liberation’, in Libya as ‘protection of civilians’, in Yemen as ‘restoring legitimacy’, and in Syria as ‘democracy’. Yet, when it comes to Palestine, the silence is deafening, and the coverage is minimal, allowing the atrocities to continue unchecked.

A Call for Genuine Solidarity

The hypocrisy of Arab governments stands in sharp relief when their willingness to destroy other Arab nations is juxtaposed with their inaction on Palestine. The world is watching, and the question remains: who will stand for the Palestinians?

It is incumbent upon the global community, especially the citizens of these Arab nations, to hold their governments accountable. True solidarity with Palestine requires more than words; it demands action. This means breaking the silence, providing humanitarian aid, and exerting political pressure to bring an end to the occupation and the ongoing violence.

The time has come for a genuine, unwavering commitment to justice for the Palestinian people. The world must wake up and act, ensuring that the sacrifices and suffering of the Palestinians are not in vain.

For the love of humanity and justice, let us spread awareness and demand accountability. The world must stand up for the Palestinians now, before more innocent lives are lost.


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EDITORIAL

We are not Yet Winning, but they are Losing

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Israeli forces have launched their assault against 1.4 million starving Palestinians sheltering in Rafah. Regime spokespeople continue to claim its attacks are “targeted” — a grotesque lie that, after the indiscriminate massacre of some 40,000 civilians, has become impossible to sustain.

The people of Rafah already face a catastrophe of unspeakable proportions. They lack facilities, infrastructure and the most basic of services. Many live in tents. Insects and insect-born diseases are rampant. Food, water, medicine and fuel have run out. These acute, life threatening lacks are the direct consequence of the long-standing Israeli blockade of Gaza, a policy that took on genocidal proportions since 8 October.

How do we make sense of this slaughter? How do we explain the limp, deceitful requests from Western leaders to temper it? Why have we been unable to stop it?

Palestine is a fulcrum in the international system. It is not just a central node in the regional struggle for sovereignty and self-determination — without a free Palestine, with Israeli warplanes routinely bombing its neighbors, there can be no talk of establishing a basis for regional development or integration. Palestine is also the prism through which nearly every global contradiction comes into focus.

As Max Ajl has written, the Palestinian resistance “bring[s] the relief of the world system into clearer view: the impotence of the United Nations; the imperialist contempt for international law; the complicity of the Arab neo-colonial states with Western capitalism; the fascist racism at the heart of modern European and US capitalism, as murderers and maimers operate in Western capitals; the neo-colonial structures of the Arab and Third World; and the hollowness of Western liberal democracy and its constellation of civil society institutions.”

The dehumanization and destruction of the Palestinian people has been a repeat feature of the world system since the 1948 Nakba. In the last 20 years alone, Palestinians have suffered a never-ending stream of deadly Israeli military assaults, most of which barely break into global public consciousness: Operation Forward Shield, Operation Days of Penitence, Operation Summer Rains, the 2006 Gaza beach explosion, the 2006 Beit Hanoun shelling, Operation Autumn Clouds, the 2008 Beit Hanoun incident, Operation Hot Winter, Operation Cast Lead, the assault on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, Operation Returning Echo, Operation Pillar of Defence, Operation Protective Edge, the killing by sniper fire of 223 Palestinians and wounding of over 9,000 as they marched, almost entirely unarmed, to the Gaza prison fence as part of the Great March of Return, Operation Breaking Dawn and now Operation Swords of Iron, this latest invasion of Gaza, accompanied by incursions in the West Bank. Each one of these operations contains oceans of human tragedy that should drown our common humanity.

Joining these operations are the daily harassment and dispossession of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, with the clear aim of replacing one population with another. This ceaseless oppression generates resistance — and that resistance brings the terrible rot in the imperialist system into view.

That system has been plain to see to a great number of people in the South for decades. But today, it is made additionally legible by its evident frailty. That is why the fight for Palestinian freedom is uniting so many disparate struggles all over the world, while injecting new confidence and determination into popular movements from Sana’a to Columbia University.

In the Global North, the imperial elites are rapidly losing the people. Polls show majorities in the US, UK and Germany now want to end arms sales to Israel. The average Brit, German or US American can see that in the imperialist world system, a Palestinian life is worth immeasurably less than an Israeli life. For most people, this grotesque injustice is intolerable.

In universities and cities across Europe and the US, students are now occupying institutions in protest against their complicity in the genocide. Direct action campaigns are rising and throwing sand in the wheels of the war machine. As the repression mounts, the battle against it grows stronger. The Palestinian resistance has brought the rebellion to the North.

As the movement for Palestinian liberation and global justice gathers steam, it is our task to help move it from global sympathy for the Palestinians and the oppressed into active solidarity with them. If we do, Israel and its elite backers in the political-media class of the North will no longer be able to pretend that it is a normal state, that it is the victim.

From there, we build outwards: from Palestine to the world. The imperialist system doesn’t start and end in Palestine. It runs through the cobalt mines of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the special economic zones of Honduras, the prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, and the entire planet, jolted out of climatic stability by imperialism’s relentless drive to siphon the wealth of the many into the hands of the few.

Our world is undergoing rapid and great change. This process is accompanied by tremendous imperial violence – both against the South and the opposition in the North. But these are the death cries of an expiring system. And that system can be overcome.

We can turn these violent howls into the first cries of a newly birthed world. But we can only do it if we deepen the mutinies in the North and South into a united, global anti-imperialist front. In the words of Peter Mertens, if we can “get the mutiny of the North to lend a hand to the mutiny of the South, and vice versa, we can turn the world around, in the democratic, social and ecological direction this planet needs.”


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EDITORIAL

Turkey’s Bold Stand Against Israeli Aggression in Gaza: A Call for Global Solidarity

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In the wake of escalating violence and bloodshed in Gaza, Turkey has taken a resolute and commendable stance by halting all trade with Israel. This decision is not merely an economic maneuver; it is a principled stand against the gross violations of human rights and international law perpetrated by the Israeli military against the Palestinian people.

The crisis in Gaza is not new. It is a symptom of the longstanding Israeli occupation and blockade that has suffocated the Gaza Strip for years, leading to the present dire humanitarian conditions for its residents. The Gaza Strip, a small strip of land inhabited by over two million Palestinians, has been the stage for one of the most prolonged and devastating humanitarian crises of our time. For far too long, the world has turned a blind eye to the suffering of the people of Gaza, as they endure relentless attacks, blockade, and systemic oppression.

Six months since the 7 October brutal attack on Israel by Hamas and the Israeli military’s ensuing ground offensive in Gaza, One hundred and thirty four Israeli hostages are still in Hamas’ captivity, of which about 30 are believed dead, and much of Gaza has been turned into a wasteland. Satellite images suggest more than half of all buildings have been destroyed by the Israeli military offensive; the soil and groundwater have been contaminated by munitions and toxins; and, as hunger grips the coastal territory, Israel has been accused of using starvation as a weapon of war and provoking famine in the besieged strip. According to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory the death toll stands at more than 33,000, mostly women and children, and more than 75,000 people have been wounded, with little to no access to medical care as most hospitals are no longer fully operational.

Turkey’s decision to halt all trade with Israel sends a powerful message to the international community: that silence and complicity in the face of Israeli atrocities are no longer acceptable. By taking concrete action to hold Israel accountable for its crimes, Turkey is standing on the right side of history and reaffirming its commitment to justice and solidarity with the Palestinian people.

Furthermore, Turkey’s stance resonates deeply with the sentiments of some Arab states in the Gulf, who have also condemned Israel’s actions and expressed solidarity with the Palestinians. The Gulf states have a vital role to play in the region, both politically and economically, and their support for the Palestinian cause carries significant weight.

However, mere condemnation is not enough. The Gulf states must follow Turkey’s lead and take tangible steps to pressure Israel to end its illegal occupation and blockade of Palestinian territories. This includes imposing sanctions, divesting from companies that profit from the occupation, and advocating for international accountability through forums like the United Nations.

Moreover, the Gulf states have a moral obligation to address the root causes of the conflict, including the ongoing dispossession of Palestinian land and the denial of Palestinian rights. This requires a concerted effort to support Palestinian statehood and self-determination, based on the principles of justice, equality, and respect for international law.

In the face of Israel’s impunity and the failure of the international community to act, it is imperative for countries like Turkey and the Gulf states to lead by example and mobilize global solidarity for the Palestinian cause. The time for empty rhetoric and diplomatic niceties is over; what is needed now is bold and decisive action to end the suffering of the Palestinian people and achieve a just and lasting peace in the Middle East. Critics may argue that Turkey’s decision will have economic repercussions, but some sacrifices are necessary in the pursuit of justice. Economic interests should never take precedence over fundamental moral principles. By prioritizing human rights over profit margins, Turkey sets a commendable example for other nations to follow.

Turkey’s stance underscores the urgent need for a just and lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The status quo of occupation and oppression is unsustainable and incompatible with the principles of peace and justice. A two-state solution, based on the pre-1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, remains the most viable path towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Turkey’s decision to halt all trade with Israel is a courageous and principled stand against injustice. It is a reminder that the struggle for Palestinian rights is not just a moral imperative but also a legal and political obligation for all nations committed to upholding human dignity and international law. The Gulf states must heed this call and join Turkey in taking concrete action to hold Israel accountable and support the Palestinian people in their quest for freedom and justice. Anything short of this would be a betrayal of the values and principles that we claim to uphold as members of the international community.

History will judge nations not by their economic prosperity or military might, but by their commitment to upholding the values of justice, dignity, and human rights. Turkey’s decision to halt trade with Israel is a testament to its unwavering dedication to these principles, and it deserves the support and admiration of all who cherish freedom and equality.


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