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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

South Africa is Exporting more Food. But it Needs to find New Growth Frontiers

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By Wandile Sihlobo

South African agricultural exports were up for the third consecutive year in 2022, reflecting favourable production conditions and higher commodity prices. The export numbers for the full year have not yet been published. I have calculated the annual data for 2022 using quarterly trade export statistics published by Trade Map, a trade statistics portal developed by the International Trade Centrethe United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the World Trade Organisation. The major export crops continued to be maize, wine, grapes, citrus, berries, nuts, apples and pears, sugar, avocados, and wool.

These products have been the drivers of exports over the past couple of decades. In particular, fruit and wine have increasingly become the leading export products. These have driven a rise in the value of agriculture (and agro-processing) exports, which have averaged 11% of the South Africa’s overall exports, up from 9% in the decade before. South Africa now exports roughly half of its agricultural produce in value terms. Citrus, table grapes, wine and a range of deciduous fruits dominate the export list. Increasingly, we are seeing the encouraging uptick in beef exports

These robust exports have enabled South Africa to retain its position as a net exporter of agricultural products over time. In 2022, South Africa’s agricultural exports reached US$12.8 billion, up 4% from the previous year. Imports, nevertheless, remain significant, averaging US$6.6 billion over the past five years. In 2022, the top imported products were rice, palm oil, wheat, poultry and whiskies. These originated primarily from Asia, the European Union, the UK and the Americas.

Based on my calculations, using Trade Map 2022 data, South Africa’s agricultural imports amounted to US$7.3 billion, up 6% from the previous year. Considering this import value against the export value of US$12.8 billion, South Africa’s agriculture realised a record trade surplus of US$5.5 billion.

In view of this, focus should now be on expansion of South Africa’s agricultural exports beyond its typical markets in the African continent, EU and parts of Asia, to new growth frontiers. There is growth in domestic production, and South Africa will require new markets for the expanding harvest.

The priority countries for expanding agricultural exports should be China, South Korea, Japan, the US, Vietnam, Taiwan, India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, the Philippines and Bangladesh. All have sizeable populations and large imports of agricultural products.

Who is buying South African?

My calculations using Trademap data  show that the African continent remains a leading market, accounting for 37% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2022.

These exports are concentrated within the Southern African Development Community region. But my recent research shows that South Africa’s agriculture export opportunities within the African continent will be limited due to structural challenges, preventing the agricultural sector from expanding its exports into untapped markets. This is despite the hope that’s been placed on the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Asia was the second-largest agricultural market, accounting for 27% of exports, followed by the EU, accounting for 19%. The Americas region was the fourth largest, accounting for 7%, and the remaining 10% went to the rest of the world. Within the rest of the world category, the UK, historically South Africa’s major market for agricultural produce, was one of the leading markets.

The products of exports to these markets were primarily the same, with the African continent and Asia importing over two-thirds of maize harvests. Meanwhile, exports to other regions were mainly fruit and wine. Asia has seen much faster growth in exports over the past six years, while the African continent and the EU have remained fairly stable.

Challenges

South Africa’s robust export earnings were achieved in the face of various challenges in ports and key export markets. For example, at the start of 2022, logistical challenges in the port of Cape Town disrupted the exports of table grapes and other deciduous fruits. Thankfully, cooperation between Transnet and organised agriculture helped minimise the constraints, and opened up channels of communication that were critical for managing the flow of exports and attending to pressing problems.

The Durban port, which handles about 60% of the country’s exports and imports, faced fewer challenges than the previous year. As a result, citrus exporters faced a relatively better export season from a logistics perspective. The smoother flow of agricultural exports through Durban was also brought about by increased cooperation between organised agriculture and Transnet.

Credit should go to organised agriculture groupings, the government, Transnet and various logistical groups that worked tirelessly to ensure a flow of products to export destinations. While there are still many challenges within logistics, Transnet’s willingness to cooperate closely with the agricultural community has helped improve product flow. South African exports also faced non-tariff barriers in some key export markets, such as China for wool and the EU for citrus. China temporarily blocked South African wool in response to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa.

This was a misstep on China’s part as there is already a framework for dealing with an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease to ensure the safety of wool exports to China. Notably, the outbreak was on cattle, not sheep, which should have provided further comfort about the safety of wool exports.

China lifted the ban after about four months. However, it had already had a notable financial impact on South African wool farmers and exporting businesses. China accounts for just over 70% of South Africa’s wool exports.

For its part, the EU imposed protectionist measures on South Africa’s agriculture by changing its regulation on plant safety for citrus without notifying its trading partners in reasonable time.

The new regulation purports to protect the EU from a quarantine organism, “false codling moth”, by introducing stringent new cold treatment requirements, particularly on citrus imports from Africa, mainly affecting South Africa, Zimbabwe and Eswatini. This was a contentious issue, especially as South Africa had already put rigorous measures to control the moth, which the EU used as a pretext to restrict citrus imports from Africa.

Focus areas

Given that South Africa’s agriculture is export-orientated, the focus should be on maintaining smooth relations with existing critical export markets while searching for additional new markets. This is particularly important in the context of growing tensions between the east and the west, specifically the US and China. South Africa has to maintain open and friendlier relations with both groupings as the exports of agriculture are evenly spread across these regions.

Wandile Sihlobo is a Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University

Courtesy: The Conversation


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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Dangote, Air Peace and the Patriotism of Capital

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By Chidi Amuta

Money is perhaps a homeless vagrant. It has no nationality or permanent homestead in real terms. It goes and stays only where its masters are wise, prudent and far sighted. But in a world dominated by nations and their interests, real money is first a national asset and tool of governance and sovereign assertion. When money thus becomes a source of power, the nation whose flag the conquering company flies shows up to claim its own. Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Coca Cola are synonymous with America. It is not because every American can walk off with a can of Coke from the supermarket without paying for it but because somewhere along the way, brand and nation have become fused and interchangeable. Every successful Business may aspire to an international identity but when the chips are down, every successful business needs to be anchored first on a specific sense of sovereign belonging. Ultimately, then, the companies to which sovereign wealth is usually ascribed have a final responsibility to that nation or sovereignty in times of trouble or goodness.

Make no mistake about it. Businesses are in business to succeed as businesses. To succeed as a business is to make tons of profit and invest in even more business and wealth creation. Sensible companies do not always overtly toe the government’s line. They instead buy into the hearts and minds of the citizens through the products they  offer and how friendly their prices are.

Two Nigerian brands have recently stepped forward to identify with the citizens of our country in this moment of grave challenge and desperate self -inflicted hardship. Dangote and Air Peace are now on record as having risen to use their products, brand presence and pricing strategies to identify with and ameliorate some of the harrowing difficulties that Nigerians are currently going through.

The worst moments of our present economic travail may not be over just yet. The epidemic of hunger still looms over the land. Innocent people are still being trampled to needless death at palliative food centers. Some are getting squeezed to death while scrambling for tiny free cash. Inflation figures just got even worse at over 33.4%. Those who fled the country in awe of rampaging hardship have not yet started returning or regretting their decisions to flee. Most Nigerians, rich and poor alike, are still needing to be convinced that the curse of recent hopelessness can be reversed any time soon.

Yet out of the darkness and gloom that now pervades our national mood, a tinge of sweetness has begun to seep into the air. The exchange rate of the Naira to major currencies has begun heading south. The dollar, which at the worst moments in recent times exchanged for as low as N2, 300 to a US dollar, has climbed up in value. As at the time of this writing, a little over N1,000 can fetch you the same miserable US dollar. That may not sound like paradise yet since it is still worse than the worst of the Daura emperor. Most Nigerians are praying that Tinubu should minimally take us back to the Buhari days in terms of the exchange rate and relative food security. We are still far from there.

What has Dangote got to do with it all? The removal of fuel subsidy had unleashed an astronomical hike in energy and fuel prices. While motorists and transporters wept and wailed at the gas stations, the price of nearly everything else went through the roof. Since public power supply remains as epileptic or absent as in the 1970s or worse, we have been living in a virtual generator republic that is dependent on diesel and petrol generators. The price of diesel in particular jumped through the roof. Industrial production suffered just as transportation and haulage costs became unbearable. Every high cost was passed down to the suffocating hapless citizens.

Fortuitously, the gigantic Dangote refinery complex was coming on stream in a time of great difficulty.  Somehow, the hope was alive that the Dangote refinery would come on stream with a bit of good news on the pricing of gasoline and diesel. But no one knew for sure what Mr. Dangote’s cost accountants had in stock especially with the devilish exchange rate that reigned in the first nine months of the Tinubu tenure.

Energy and fuel prices were off the roof. A liter of diesel went for as high as N1,650 in some places. Gasoline was not any better. Those who wanted to keep their homes powered from generators needed troves of cash to procure diesel whose prices kept going up as the dollar exchange rate escalated. Factories fared worse.

Refreshingly, Mr. Aliko Dangote whose mega billion dollar refinery in Lagos has just started producing petroleum products has a bit of good news for all Nigerians. He has reduced the price of diesel from the mountain pe58% to a more considerate N1,000 per liter, nearly a 58% reduction in price in less than a week. The prospect is good that when his gasoline products begin to flow through the pumps. Mr. Dangote may have even better news at the gas stations. Along with his fellow cement oligarchs had promised to deliver cement to Nigerians at a more friendly price. The full benefit of that promise is still a long way away.

It needs to be said in fairness to Dangote as a brand that more than any other single company in Nigeria, it has invested in the things that touch the lives of the people most immediately. Sugar, salt, fertilizer, tomato puree, fruit juices, cement and now petroleum products. No other single Nigerian brand can boast of a wider and more expansive range of socially relevant products than Dangote.

In direct response to the prevailing hunger and hardship in the land, Mr. Dangote has himself stepped forward to provide millions of bags of rice and other food items to Nigerians across the length and breadth of the country as humanitarian palliatives. In terms of the human face of capitalism, Dangote would seem to have perfected an enlightened self interest above his peers.

Just when life was about to gradually grind to a halt, a bit of good news has come from unusual quarters. In a nation that has grown dependent on a feeding bottle tied to the beast of external suppliers of everything from tooth picks to civilized coffee, the belief persisted that all good news can only come from abroad. Nigerians could only hope to enjoy more friendly prices for the things that make them happy if our foreign partners changed their mind. Not any more. It requires pointing out that the Nigerian spirit is too expansive to be bottled up within our borders just because air tickets are unaffordable. The urban- based Nigerian wants to go abroad for business, on holidays or just to flex!

At the worst of the recent moments, a return Economy Class ticket to nearby London sold for as much as N3.8m-N4million. Major international airlines insisted that the Central Bank had seized and was sitting on their dollar ticket sales proceeds. They needed to keep the high fares to hedge against the uncertainties that were everywhere in the Nigerian air. Nigerian travellers were being punished for the bad fortunes of their national currency and the untidy book keeping habits of the Central Bank.

Almost from nowhere, Nigeria’s largest international airline, Air Peace, announced a low fare flight into London’s Gatwick Airport. The airport itself is also owned by a Nigerian businessman. The fares were unbelievably low, as low as N1.2 million in some cases against the exploitative fares of all the major foreign airlines plying that route. Unbelievably, Air Peace pulled off the London Gatwick  deal with quite a bit of fanfare and patriotic noise making that set the foreign competitors scampering back to the drawing board. Air Peace floated the Gatwick fare reduction as a patriotic act, more like social responsibility to fellow Nigerians than the plain business sense which is what it really is. It was a drive for volume in a market of low volume driven by high fares.

To drive home the patriotic edge of its revival of international flights, Air Peace rebranded its crew and adorned its senior cabin crew with uniforms that featured the traditional Igbo “Isi Agu” motif. For those who are hard at hearing, the Isi Agu motif on Nigerian traditional outfits is of Igbo ancestry just as the Aso Oke, Adire and Babanriga are South Western Yoruba and Northern Hausa-Fulani respectively. A Nigerian airline intent on striking a recognizable indigenous resonance and identity could adapt any combination of these traditional dress motifs to drive home its original and national identity. The isi Agu features a series of lion heads, obviously severed at a moment of unusual valor. To go on a hunt and successfully kill and decapitate a lion is an undisputed symbol or infact a metaphor for unusual valour and heroism among the Igbo. Therefore the choice of that motif by Air Peace in its new cabin outfit is in fact a modern statement on the unusual heights to which Nigerian enterprise can rise if inspired by a patriotic commitment to national greatness. The Isi Agu is therefore Nigerian national heroism captured in an outfit.

In their recent pricing strategies, neither Dangote nor Air Peace has acted out of pure charity or patriotic feeling. Both are reacting to the pressure of latent demand in a market where the purchasing power has been depressed by economic difficulty brought about by government policy and political exigencies. Yet each of them is intent on being seen as acting out of altruistic patriotic motives. That may be true in the short term.

For every liter of diesel sold, Dangote is saving the Nigerian consumer 60% of the current market price. A savings of 60% is a lot for households and businesses. Similarly, for every Economy Class ticket sold by Air Peace on the London route, the average Nigerian traveller gets to save between N1.3million-N1.6 million. That is an awful lot of relief which travellers can apply to other competing needs in these hard times. No one can deny that these are direct savings and benefits that accrue directly to Nigerian citizens. To that extent, both Dangote and Air Peace can be said to be applying their capital to serve a patriotic end.

It is common capitalist gimmick for companies to apply a percentage of their profit to pursue communally beneficial ends in their territory of operation. Oil companies build schools, hospitals, libraries and other socially beneficial infrastructure in their catchment localities. In normal corporate parlance, that only qualifies as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) or targeted social beneficence.

But Dangote and Air Peace are doing something a bit more far reaching. They are shedding handsome percentages of their revenue and therefore profit to fellow Nigerians at a time when such savings are desperately needed and deeply appreciated. That is an instance of capitalism serving a patriotic end over and above its statutory tax obligations to the government. This should be commended.

It does not, however, make these companies any less rapacious as capitalist ventures than any others. They may in fact be investing in better times and bigger profits when the bad days are over. They are investing in the goodwill of the market and therefore deepening their brand penetration and mass sympathy. These are strategies which are far sighted marketing ploys that dig deep into the hearts and minds of generations of consumers.

Ultimately, every capitalist is like a cat; selfish with nine lives and prone to inherent cunning. But, as former Chinese leader Deng Zao Ping said when embracing the free market for his long standing communist nation: “A cat is a cat. It does not matter whether it is a black cat or a white cat. For as long as it catches mice, it is a good cat.”

Dr. Amuta, a Nigerian journalist, intellectual and literary critic, was previously a senior lecturer in literature and communications at the universities of Ife and Port Harcourt.


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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

CFA Franc: is the Time up for the Colonial Currency?

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By Kai Koddenbrock

At no point in history has the CFA franc – the name of a colonial currency used in west and central African countries belonging to the franc zone – been closer to its demise. Senegal has overwhelmingly voted for leftwing Pastef candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye (and his former party leader Ousmane Sonko) while the coup governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have been talking about leaving the CFA franc for some time.

Senegal under outgoing president Macky Sall was a pillar of the longstanding French attempt to remain influential among its former colonies, often named “Francafrique”. Now newly elected Faye, under the moniker of “Left Panafricanism”, has vowed to make his country more sovereign in food, energy and finance. Never before have four west African governments, including one of the regional leaders, Senegal, been simultaneously eager and ready to get out of the neo-colonial stranglehold of the CFA franc. The CFA franc zone was founded by then colonial power France after the second world war. Its aim was to ensure a continuously cheap influx of resources into France.

The zone is divided into two. The west African CFA franc zone has eight members: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Togo and Guinea-Bissau. The central African zone has six: Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Chad and Equatorial Guinea.

Popular mobilisation against the currency has been intense in recent years in west Africa. This led to cosmetic changes to the currency arrangements. For example in 2019, French president Emmanuel Macron and the sitting president of Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, announced the withdrawal of French staff from some of the regional central bank’s decision-making bodies. They also waived the requirement – much maligned on the continent – to store 50% of all reserves in Paris as a guarantee to the former colonial power that they wouldn’t be wasted on irresponsible fiscal expansion. Overall, however, the CFA franc has remained more or less the same and France has not been willing to leave the arrangement of its own accord. The old colonial attachment and supposed developmental benevolence has carried the day.

But the conditions for major change are in place. The Alliance of Sahel States between the junta-led governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has stated its intention to introduce the “Sahel” as a new regional currency. Whether this initiative – and the Senegalese plan for a national currency – will amount to a full break-up of the CFA franc zone and its terminal decline will depend on how well they plan and execute the transition to several new currencies or a new one without any French involvement.

A hard road ahead

Historically, as shown by Fanny Pigeaud and Ndongo Sylla in their book Africa’s Last Colonial Currency: The CFA Franc Story, serious attempts at leaving the CFA franc since its inception in 1948 have been sabotaged by France. For example, Guinea was flooded by counterfeit banknotes when it left the CFA franc in the 1960s. Mali was put under pressure to rejoin the CFA franc after its departure in 1967. It returned into the fold in 1984. In 2011, Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo, who had been considering pulling out of the CFA franc, was made to step down after controversial elections with the help of a military intervention force. He was then sent to the International Criminal Court before being acquitted 10 years later.

France went further in 2011 – a case countries wanting to make the next attempt at leaving the CFA franc should be cognisant of. It used its seat on the Central Bank of West African States decision-making bodies to block Côte d’Ivoire from being refinanced by the bank. It also induced the subsidiaries of BNP Paribas and Societe Generale to temporarily close their branches. Leaving the CFA franc has thus historically come with a high risk of French sabotage. But the constellation of forces has shifted and west African governments can better prepare this time. If they join forces – and Côte d’Ivoire votes for a less France-dependent president in the presidential elections in 2025 – the end of the west African CFA franc may indeed be near.

The trust factor

The stability and legitimacy of a currency depend primarily on trust. The users of a currency (people and corporations) need to trust that its price is more or less stable. This includes a reasonably low rate of inflation, and engagement in growth-inducing economic activity. Periods of high inflation and hyper inflation have always been the result of a serious economic crisis in which trust was absent.

Monetary stability thus depends on social and macroeconomic stability. This, in turn, is the result of how well governmental policies and domestic and world market processes align. A government that is seen to have a plan and is able to adapt to and steer economic pressure goes a long way in creating trust. And, by implication, it makes a new currency less prone to speculative attack or massive devaluation.

In Senegal, Pastef’s election program had a roadmap towards leaving the CFA franc and setting up a national currency. Among the key steps are:

  • creating a national central bank
  • refinancing of state expenditure at 0%
  • de-monetising gold and preventing its import and export to build up a gold reserve
  • repatriating gold reserves still stored in Paris and all over the world
  • reprofiling public debt and cancelling private debt through monetary fiat
  • installing a deposit insurance scheme for small savers
  • building a national stock exchange.

Finally, the new currency will be floating and non-convertible or semi-convertible to shield it from speculative attacks. This menu is similar to some of the strategies China has employed over the last decades to maintain government control over the economy and shield the Chinese economic growth path from foreign – in other words speculative – interference. The success of such a strategy depends to a large degree on mobilising domestic financial and real domestic resources. And, in the absence of China’s massive domestic market, building regional economic complementarities.

The strategic challenge for Diomaye will thus be to enlist a sufficiently large group of small business people, landowners and power-brokers around Mouride and Tidjaniyya Muslim brotherhoods and the capitalist class in Senegal to his economically transformative project. This will be a sizeable challenge in the face of upcoming export revenues from gas and oil – contracts Pastef has vowed to renegotiate – and an overall economic structure that is not yet domestic market oriented.

A national currency could support this shift in focus towards the well-being of the Senegalese people. This is because its logic would be to reorient the government towards the domestic economy and its people. Imports and easy repatriation of earnings by foreign corporations, which are some of the main effects of the often overvalued CFA franc, would become more difficult.

Make or break factors

The reaction to Faye’s agenda by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other donors and creditors will be crucial to watch. To what extent the new Senegalese government is prepared to dispense with their sizeable sums in aid and credits remains to be seen. Niger recently did dispense with them and reduced its budget by 40% as aid was frozen.

Overall, Senegal and the Sahel governments are in a stronger position globally than ever before. The African continent is seen as essential to ensure the energy transition in Europe as well as its diversification of oil and gas supply. And western military, diplomatic and trade hegemony on the continent is being challenged by China and Russia as well as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Turkey. If Senegal and the Sahel governments position the end of the CFA franc well in their overall negotiations with their international partners as well as their domestic capitalist class and opposing political forces, its end may indeed by near.

That will not be the end of the long road towards food, energy and overall economic sovereignty to the benefit of the people. But it will be an important symbolic and material victory against postcolonial interference and meddling. The colonial CFA franc has outlived its usefulness for today’s “Left Panafricanism”. Organising its end is a sizeable challenge, but for the first time in decades is one that can be confronted head on.

Kai Koddenbrock is Professor of Political Economy , Bard College Berlin

Courtesy: The Conversation


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Inquiry on General Babangida’s Involvement in Conventional Banking despite Introduction of Islamic Finance in Nigeria

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Dear Editor,

I hope this letter finds you well. I am writing to express my curiosity and seek clarification on a matter that has caught my attention, specifically pertaining to General Babangida’s involvement in the conventional banking industry despite his role in introducing Islamic finance during the financial reforms of his military government in Nigeria. Vide your special article commemorating his 81st Birthday published in your esteemed news website: https://focus.afrief.org/trending/a-salutary-tribute-to-general-ibrahim-badamasi-babangida-architect-of-islamic-finance-in-nigeria/

It is indeed noteworthy that General Ibrahim Babangida played a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape of Nigeria by introducing Islamic finance principles. It is fascinating to witness the implementation of Islamic finance in Nigeria, as it promotes principles that align with religious and ethical values. General Babangida’s efforts to introduce this form of finance were undoubtedly commendable, reflecting his commitment to establishing an alternative financial system that adheres to Islamic principles.

However, recent observations suggest his active participation in the conventional banking sector in Nigeria. Certainly, it is intriguing to see General Babangida’s continued involvement in the conventional banking industry, which operates under different principles. While some may argue that his involvement in both sectors is simply a matter of personal choice, it raises questions about the compatibility of his actions with the ideals and principles of Islamic finance. While the former is interest driven, the latter prohibits interest related transactions completely.

I wonder if General Babangida has ever publicly addressed this matter or explained his reasoning behind being active in both sectors. It would be enlightening to hear his perspective on how he reconciles his involvement in conventional banking with his efforts towards promoting Islamic finance. This has raised questions in my mind and perhaps in the minds of others as well.

I am keen to understand the rationale behind General Babangida’s dual engagement in both Islamic finance and conventional banking. Does this reflect a strategic approach to diversify Nigeria’s financial sector, or are there specific reasons behind his involvement in conventional banking despite advocating for Islamic finance principles?

Additionally, it would be interesting to explore the potential impact of his dual involvement on the perception and growth of Islamic finance in Nigeria. Does his presence in the conventional banking industry hinder the progress of Islamic finance, or does it have the potential to bridge the gap between the two sectors?

I believe that delving into these questions could provide valuable insights and generate constructive discussions within the Islamic finance community in Nigeria. By shedding light on General Babangida’s dual involvement and the potential implications, we can further enhance our understanding of the challenges and opportunities faced by the Islamic economy in our country.

Thank you for considering my questions, and I look forward to reading more about this topic in your esteemed Focus on Islamic Economy.

Sincerely,

 

Abba Musa Mamman Lagos

Kaduna


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